Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.390998 2.541772 2.701811 2.885133 3.090321 3.314092 3.578219
2025-04-06 2.145493 2.346423 2.570427 2.841324 3.163774 3.540256 4.020751
2025-04-13 1.965782 2.189222 2.446392 2.768980 3.169880 3.661957 4.329108
2025-04-20 1.880120 2.126892 2.418959 2.797562 3.287278 3.918000 4.826811
2025-04-27 1.823006 2.090660 2.415342 2.848912 3.430976 4.216186 5.419220
2025-05-04 1.773500 2.058120 2.410910 2.894701 3.566750 4.514109 6.056827
2025-05-11 1.702545 1.993067 2.358981 2.870938 3.601107 4.666990 6.492554
2025-05-18 1.641749 1.936883 2.313980 2.851311 3.636638 4.821752 6.955103
2025-05-25 1.585516 1.883257 2.268510 2.826452 3.660131 4.957475 7.406994
2025-06-01 1.534094 1.833203 2.224614 2.799873 3.677077 5.082135 7.860962
2025-06-08 1.497456 1.800844 2.202634 2.802535 3.737798 5.284782 8.512559
2025-06-15 1.472789 1.783167 2.199488 2.831760 3.841734 5.573769 9.421763
2025-06-22 1.426535 1.734945 2.152174 2.793168 3.834300 5.665642 9.925008
2025-06-29 1.383020 1.688909 2.105963 2.753517 3.821764 5.746493 10.428316
2025-07-06 1.333573 1.632974 2.043319 2.685025 3.754871 5.714722 10.636088
2025-07-13 1.315842 1.620394 2.042353 2.712181 3.854225 6.022682 11.870482
2025-07-20 1.305414 1.617441 2.054902 2.760916 3.995323 6.438088 13.624990
2025-07-27 1.294015 1.612525 2.064067 2.804346 4.130537 6.865219 15.690404
2025-08-03 1.265684 1.582390 2.034246 2.781810 4.140315 7.011777 16.838151
2025-08-10 1.239900 1.555126 2.007693 2.763192 4.155826 7.174303 18.166845
2025-08-17 1.214180 1.527200 1.979109 2.739604 4.159626 7.309384 19.486528
2025-08-24 1.189310 1.499825 1.950421 2.714377 4.158127 7.431470 20.858050
2025-08-31 1.172406 1.483618 1.938306 2.716904 4.212395 7.706654 23.320903